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Area Forecast Discussion (glossary)
FXUS65 KREV 050954
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2008
.SHORT TERM...
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM A MODERATE ZONAL FLOW TODAY TO
WEAKER NW FLOW FOR SUN-MON AS RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.
ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE IS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE NEAR
42N/135W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN OREGON BY THIS
EVENING. THE GFS BRINGS IN A LITTLE MORE INSTBY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ZONES AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND SOME LATE DAY BUILDUPS
ARE PROBABLE NORTH OF GERLACH. A BRIEF TSTM CELL MAY FORM IN
EXTREME NWRN NV BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
SMOKE AND HAZE WILL STILL BE PRESENT MAINLY IN NERN CA TODAY
WHILE LIGHTER HAZE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON VSBY
OR AIR QUALITY EXTENDS SOUTH TO PORTIONS OF THE RENO-TAHOE ZONES
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...ASSUMING NO MAJOR FLARE-UPS IN
THE EXISTING FIRES WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. ALTHOUGH WIND
DIRECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER BECOMES MORE WEST TODAY...MORE
FAVORABLE TO CARRY SMOKE FROM THE AMERICAN RIVER COMPLEX NEAR KBLU
TOWARD THE TAHOE BASIN AND RENO AREAS...THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE
FROM THIS FIRE WILL BE SPREAD THINNER OVER THE REGION DUE TO
WEAKER TRANSPORT WINDS.
FOR SUN-MON...THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR LATE DAY CUMULUS
BUILDUPS SHIFTS TO THE MINERAL-MONO CONVERGENCE ZONE AS WEAKER
FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DUE TO ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR DYNAMICS...TSTM FORMATION IS UNLIKELY BOTH
DAYS. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THRU MON
NIGHT. LIGHTER NW-N SFC WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS BECOMING N-NE
WILL INHIBIT TRANSPORT OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA
CREST BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEREFORE SMOKE AND HAZE IS NOT MENTIONED
IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUN MORNING.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP EACH DAY THRU MONDAY...WITH MOST
VALLEYS BACK ABOVE 90 DEGREES TODAY AFTER A DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. BY MONDAY...SOME SITES IN WRN NV MAY MEET OR EXCEED RECORD
HIGHS...BUT THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THAT DAY ARE RELATIVELY EASY
TO REACH. THE PROSPECTS FOR A MORE INTENSE HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK HAVE
DECREASED AS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE
CORE OF THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER ERN
CA-WRN NV. MJD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THURS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PREVIOUSLY...GFS WAS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE BY THURS BUT NOW ECMWF
AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO INDICATING A FLATTENING OF
THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH A TROF DIVING INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. ACTUALLY IT APPEARS THE RIDGE
IS RETROGRADING INTO THE E PAC MORE THAN BREAKING DOWN. ECMWF IS A
LITTLE QUICKER WITH TROF EDGING INTO THE REGION ON THURS THAN
OPERATIONAL GFS...BUT NOT BY MUCH. WITH DEEPEST MSTR EAST OF THE CWA
WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. STILL A FEW RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH END OF THE ENSEMBLE TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKING A BIT
LOWER FOR THURSDAY...SO POSSIBILITY OF RECORDS THERE STARTING TO
DIMINISH. WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF TROF AND JUST HOW FAR
WEST RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE HEADLINES REGARDING
RECORD HIGH TEMPS AS IS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. MLF
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NO ADDITIONAL NEW
FIRES HAVE STARTED CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AND WINDS CONTINUE
PUSHING MOST OF THE SMOKE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WNW TODAY AND GUSTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON SOME SMOKE SHOULD DRIFT BACK INTO THE KTRK...KTVL
AND KRNO AREAS...BUT VSBYS SHOULD FALL TO NO WORSE THAN 6 MILES. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SMOKE IN THE VICINITY OF KLOL. MLF
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
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